March 31, 2006
Microsoft bug cripples Google quantum-based spam filtering
It's already tomorrow somewhere. This was nicely done. I especially like the 'Instant Instant Messaging" part.
March 30, 2006
The Case for War in Iran, 1st Draft
THE PRESIDENT: Thank you all. Thank you for that very gracious and warm Cincinnati welcome. I'm honored to be here tonight; I appreciate you all coming.
Tonight I want to take a few minutes to discuss a grave threat to peace, and America's determination to lead the world in confronting that threat.
The threat comes from
Iraq Iran. It arises directly from the Iraqi Iranian regime's own actions -- its history of aggression, and its drive toward an arsenal of terror. It possesses and produces chemical and biological weapons. It is seeking nuclear weapons. It has given shelter and support to terrorism, and practices terror against its own people. The entire world has witnessed Iraq's Iran’s history of defiance, deception and bad faith.
We also must never forget the most vivid events of recent history. On September the 11th, 2001, America felt its vulnerability -- even to threats that gather on the other side of the earth. We resolved then, and we are resolved today, to confront every threat, from any source, that could bring sudden terror and suffering to America.
Members of the Congress of both political parties, and members of the United Nations Security Council, agree that
Saddam Hussein Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is a threat to peace and must disarm. We agree that the Iraqi Iranian dictator must not be permitted to threaten America and the world with horrible poisons and diseases and gases and atomic weapons. Since we all agree on this goal, the issues is : how can we best achieve it?
Many Americans have raised legitimate questions: about the nature of the threat; about the urgency of action -- why be concerned now; about the link between
Iraq Iran developing weapons of terror, and the wider war on terror. These are all issues we've discussed broadly and fully within my administration. And tonight, I want to share those discussions with you.
First, some ask why
Iraq Iran is different from other countries or regimes that also have terrible weapons. While there are many dangers in the world, the threat from Iraq Iran stands alone -- because it gathers the most serious dangers of our age in one place. Iraq's Iran’s weapons of mass destruction are controlled by a murderous tyrant. This same tyrant has tried to dominate the Middle East, has invaded and brutally occupied a small neighbor, has struck other nations without warning waged a brutal war with peace loving Iraq, and holds an unrelenting hostility toward the United States.
By its past and present actions, by its technological capabilities, by the merciless nature of its regime,
Iraq Iran is unique. As a former chief weapons inspector of the U.N. has said, "The fundamental problem with Iraq Iran remains the nature of the regime, itself. Saddam Hussein Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is a homicidal dictator who is addicted to weapons of mass destruction."
Some ask how urgent this danger is to America and the world. The danger is already significant, and it only grows worse with time. If we know
Saddam Hussein Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has dangerous weapons today -- and we do -- does it make any sense for the world to wait to confront him as he grows even stronger and develops even more dangerous weapons?
IWe know that the regime has produced thousands of tons of chemical agents, including mustard gas, sarin nerve gas, VX nerve gas.
Saddam Hussein Mahmoud Ahmadinejad also has experience with chemical weapons. He has ordered chemical attacks on Iran, and on more than forty villages in his own country He saw how effective they were when Iraq, with our support, used them against Iran. These actions killed or injured at least 20,000 people, more than six times the number of people who died in the attacks of September the 11th.
And surveillance photos reveal that the regime is rebuilding facilities that it had used to produce chemical and biological weapons.
Iraq Iran possesses ballistic missiles with a likely range of hundreds of miles -- far enough to strike Saudi Arabia, Israel, Turkey, and other nations -- in a region where more than 135,000 American civilians and service members live and work. We've also discovered through intelligence that Iraq Iran has a growing fleet of manned and unmanned aerial vehicles that could be used to disperse chemical or biological weapons across broad areas. We also believe that Iran is being helped by space aliens. We're concerned that Iraq Iran is exploring ways of using these UAVS for missions targeting the United States. And, of course, sophisticated delivery systems aren't required for a chemical or biological attack; all that might be required are a small container and one terrorist or Iraqi Iranian intelligence operative to deliver it.
And that is the source of our urgent concern about
Saddam Hussein’s Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s links to international terrorist groups. Over the years, Iraq Iran has provided safe haven to terrorists such as Abu Nidal [Bad person name goes here], whose terror organization carried out more than 90 terrorist attacks in 20 countries that killed or injured nearly 900 people, including 12 Americans. Iraq Iran has also provided safe haven to Abu Abbas [Bad person name goes here], who was responsible for seizing the Achille Lauro [Bad deed goes here] and killing an American passenger. And we know that Iraq Iran is continuing to finance terror and gives assistance to groups that use terrorism to undermine Middle East peace.
We know that
Iraq Iran and the al Qaeda terrorist network share a common enemy -- the United States of America. We know that Iraq Iran and al Qaeda have had high-level contacts that go back a decade. Some al Qaeda leaders who fled Afghanistan went to Iraq Iran. These include one very senior al Qaeda leader who received medical treatment in Baghdad Teheran (hey, I bet Teheran means “Capital of Teherism in English!) this year, and who has been associated with planning for chemical and biological attacks. We've learned that Iraq Iran has trained al Qaeda members in bomb-making and poisons and deadly gases. And we know that after September the 11th, Saddam Hussein’s Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s regime gleefully celebrated the terrorist attacks on America. Iraq Iran could decide on any given day to provide a biological or chemical weapon to a terrorist group or individual terrorists. Alliance with terrorists could allow the Iraqi Iranian regime to attack America without leaving any fingerprints.
Some have argued that confronting the threat from
Iraq Iran could detract from the war against terror. To the contrary; confronting the threat posed by Iraq Iran is crucial to winning the war on terror. When I spoke to Congress more than a year ago, I said that those who harbor terrorists are as guilty as the terrorists themselves. Saddam Hussein Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is harboring terrorists and the instruments of terror, the instruments of mass death and destruction. And he cannot be trusted. The risk is simply too great that he will use them, or provide them to a terror network.
Terror cells and outlaw regimes building weapons of mass destruction are different faces of the same evil. Our security requires that we confront both. And the United States military is capable of confronting both.
Many people have asked how close
Saddam Hussein Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is to developing a nuclear weapon [queue ominous music]. Well, we don't know exactly, and that's the problem. Before Gulf War II, the best intelligence indicated that Iraq Iran was eight to ten years away from developing a nuclear weapon. After the war, international inspectors we learned that the regime has been much closer. The inspectors We discovered that Iraq Iran had an advanced nuclear weapons development program, had a design for a workable nuclear weapon, and was pursuing several different methods of enriching uranium for a bomb.
Before being barred from
Iraq Iran, the International Atomic Energy Agency dismantled extensive nuclear weapons-related facilities, including three uranium enrichment sites. That same year, information from a high-ranking Iraqi Iranian nuclear engineer who had defected revealed that despite his public promises, Saddam Hussein Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had ordered his nuclear program to continue.
The evidence indicates that
Iraq Iran is reconstituting its nuclear weapons program. Saddam Hussein Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has held numerous meetings with Iraqi Iranian nuclear scientists, a group he calls his "nuclear mujahideen" -- his nuclear holy warriors. Satellite photographs reveal that Iraq Iran is rebuilding facilities at sites that have been part of its nuclear program in the past. Iraq Iran has attempted to purchase high-strength aluminum tubes and other equipment needed for gas centrifuges, which are used to enrich uranium for nuclear weapons.
Iraqi Iranian regime is able to produce, buy, or steal an amount of highly enriched uranium a little larger than a single softball, it could have a nuclear weapon in less than a year. And if we allow that to happen, a terrible line would be crossed. Saddam Hussein Mahmoud Ahmadinejad would be in a position to blackmail anyone who opposes his aggression. He would be in a position to dominate the Middle East. He would be in a position to threaten America. He would be in a position to ban the production of pork rinds, and make children wear their shoes on the wrong feet. And don’t forget the space aliens, or Sept 11th! And Saddam Hussein Mahmoud Ahmadinejad would be in a position to pass nuclear technology to terrorists.
Some citizens wonder, after 11 years of living with this problem, why do we need to confront it now? And there's a reason. We've experienced the horror of September the 11th. We have seen that those who hate America are willing to crash airplanes into buildings full of innocent people. Our enemies would be no less willing, in fact, they would be eager, to use biological or chemical, or a nuclear weapon.
Knowing these realities, America must not ignore the threat gathering against us. Facing clear evidence of peril, we cannot wait for the final proof -- the smoking gun -- that could come in the form of a mushroom cloud. As President Kennedy said in October of 1962, "Neither the United States of America, nor the world community of nations can tolerate deliberate deception and offensive threats on the part of any nation, large or small. We no longer live in a world," he said, "where only the actual firing of weapons represents a sufficient challenge to a nations security to constitute maximum peril."
Understanding the threats of our time, knowing the designs and deceptions of the
Iraqi Iranian regime, we have every reason to assume the worst, and we have an urgent duty to prevent the worst from occurring.
Some believe we can address this danger by simply resuming the old approach to inspections, and applying diplomatic and economic pressure. Yet this is precisely what the world has tried to do since 1991. The U.N. inspections program was met with systematic deception. The
Iraqi Iranian regime bugged hotel rooms and offices of inspectors to find where they were going next; they forged documents, destroyed evidence, and developed mobile weapons facilities to keep a step ahead of inspectors. Eight so-called presidential palaces were declared off-limits to unfettered inspections. These sites actually encompass twelve square miles, with hundreds of structures, both above and below the ground, where sensitive materials could be hidden.
The world has also tried economic sanctions -- and watched Iraq use billions of dollars in illegal oil revenues to fund more weapons purchases, rather than providing for the needs of the Iraqi people. We therefore demand the same sanctions against Iran, and bombing, and tanks. Yee-haw!
The world Israel has tried limited military strikes to destroy Iraq's Iran’s weapons of mass destruction capabilities -- only to see them openly rebuilt, while the regime again denies they even exist.
After eleven years during which we have tried containment, sanctions, inspections, even selected military action, the end result is that
Saddam Hussein Mahmoud Ahmadinejad still has chemical and biological weapons and is increasing his capabilities to make more. And he is moving ever closer to developing a nuclear weapon.
Clearly, to actually work, any new inspections, sanctions or enforcement mechanisms will have to be very different. America wants the U.N. to be an effective organization that helps keep the peace. And that is why we are urging the Security Council to adopt a new resolution setting out tough, immediate requirements. Among those requirements: the
Iraqi Iranian regime must reveal and destroy, under U.N. supervision, all existing weapons of mass destruction. To ensure that we learn the truth, the regime must allow witnesses to its illegal activities to be interviewed outside the country -- and these witnesses must be free to bring their families with them so they all beyond the reach of Saddam Hussein’s Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s terror and murder. And inspectors must have access to any site, at any time, without pre-clearance, without delay, without exceptions.
The time for denying, deceiving, and delaying has come to an end.
Saddam Hussein Mahmoud Ahmadinejad must disarm himself -- or, for the sake of peace, we will lead a coalition to disarm him.
Many nations are joining us in insisting that
Saddam Hussein’s Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s regime be held accountable. They are committed to defending the international security that protects the lives of both our citizens and theirs. And that's why America is challenging all nations to take the resolutions of the U.N. Security Council seriously.
And these resolutions are clear. In addition to declaring and destroying all of its weapons of mass destruction,
Iraq Iran must end its support for terrorism. It must cease the persecution of its civilian population. It must release or account for all Gulf War personnel, including an American pilot, whose fate is still unknown. It must tell me where I left my car keys. It must explain how the refrigerator light turns off when I shut the door.
By taking these steps, and by only taking these steps, the
Iraqi Iranian regime has an opportunity to avoid conflict. Taking these steps would also change the nature of the Iraqi Iranian regime itself. America hopes the regime will make that choice. Unfortunately, at least so far, we have little reason to expect it. And that's why two four or so administrations – mine, President Clinton's, my dad’s, Reagan’s, and Carter’s -- have stated that regime change in Iraqi Iranian is the only certain means of removing a great danger to our nation.
I hope this will not require military action, but it
may will. And military conflict could be difficult. An Iraqi Iranian regime faced with its own demise may attempt cruel and desperate measures. If Saddam Hussein Mahmoud Ahmadinejad orders such measures, his generals would be well advised to refuse those orders. If they do not refuse, they must understand that all war criminals will be pursued and punished and tortured and sent to secret CIA prisons. If we have to act, we will take every precaution that is possible. We will plan carefully; we will act with the full power of the United States military; we will act with allies ally at our side, and we will prevail. (Applause.)
There is no easy or risk-free course of action. Some have argued we should wait -- and that's an option. In my view, it's the riskiest of all options, because the longer we wait, the stronger and bolder
Saddam Hussein Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will become. We could wait and hope that Saddam Mahmoud does not give weapons to terrorists, or develop a nuclear weapon to blackmail the world. But I'm convinced that is a hope against all evidence. As Americans, we want peace -- we work and sacrifice for peace. But there can be no peace if our security depends on the will and whims of a ruthless and aggressive dictator. I'm not willing to stake one American life on trusting Saddam Hussein Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Failure to act would embolden other tyrants, allow terrorists access to new weapons and new resources, and make blackmail a permanent feature of world events. The United Nations would betray the purpose of its founding, and prove irrelevant to the problems of our time. And through its inaction, the United States would resign itself to a future of fear.
That is not the America I know. That is not the America I serve. We refuse to live in fear. (Applause.) This nation, in world war and in Cold War, has never permitted the brutal and lawless to set history's course. Now, as before, we will secure our nation, protect our freedom, and help others to find freedom of their own.
Some worry that a change of leadership in
Iraq Iran could create instability and make the situation worse. The situation could hardly get worse, for world security and for the people of Iraq. So be it. The lives of Iraqi Iranian citizen’s great-great-grandchildren would might improve dramatically if Saddam Hussein Mahmoud Ahmadinejad were no longer in power, just as the lives of Afghanistan's citizens improved might improve after the Taliban. The dictator of Iraq Iran is a student of Stalin, using murder as a tool of terror and control, within his own cabinet, within his own army, and even within his own family.
Saddam Hussein’s Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s orders, space aliens have been allowed to use the anal probe, and blank the minds of those whom they examine.
America believes that all people are entitled to hope and human rights, to the non-negotiable demands of human dignity. People everywhere prefer freedom to slavery; prosperity to squalor; self-government to the rule of terror and torture. America is a friend to the people of
Iraq Iran. Our demands are directed only at the regime that enslaves them and threatens us. When these demands are met, the first and greatest benefit will come to Iraqi Iranian men, women and children. The oppression of Kurds, Assyrians, Turkomans, Shi'a, Sunnis, Persians, space aliens, and others will be lifted. The long captivity of Iraq Iran will end, and an era of new hope will begin. Iraq Iran is a land rich in culture, resources, and talent. Freed from the weight of oppression, Iraq’s Iran’s people will be able to share in the progress and prosperity of our time. If military action is necessary, the United States and our allies will help the Iraqi Iranian people rebuild their economy, and create the institutions of liberty in a unified Iraq Iran at peace with its neighbors.
Later this week, the United States Congress will vote on this matter. I have asked Congress to authorize the use of America's military, if it proves necessary, to enforce U.N. Security Council demands. Approving this resolution does not mean that military action is imminent or unavoidable. The resolution will tell the United Nations, and all nations, that America speaks with one voice and is determined to make the demands of the civilized world mean something. Congress will also be sending a message to the dictator in
Iraq Iran: that his only chance -- his only choice is full compliance, and the time remaining for that choice is limited.
Members of Congress are nearing an historic vote. I'm confident they will fully consider the facts, and their duties.
The attacks of September the 11th showed our country that vast oceans no longer protect us from danger. Before that tragic date, we had only hints of al Qaeda's plans and designs. Today in
Iraq Iran, we see a threat whose outlines are far more clearly defined, and whose consequences could be far more deadly. Saddam Hussein’s Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s actions have put us on notice, and there is no refuge from our responsibilities.
We did not ask for this present challenge, but we accept it. Like other generations of Americans, we will meet the responsibility of defending human liberty against violence and aggression. By our resolve, we will give strength to others. By our courage, we will give hope to others. And by our actions, we will secure the peace, and lead the world to a better day.
May God bless America. (Applause.)
March 20, 2006
H1B Visas, and The Tale of Two Jimmys
It's apparently a top priority for Microsoft is to greatly increase the number of H1B visas. At first glance, one could say that Gates just wants to hire "cheap foreign labor" rather than pay "a real living wage to real Americans."
The more I get around, the more I'm coming to understand that Gates has done a short-circuit evaluation of the current state of affairs and reached a conclusion far more radical than any of our politicians or populace are ready to admit.
I was in China a few years back, walking through a park with my daughter in tow. A group of Chinese kids was coming out of their school, all in their bright school uniforms, for recess. As we were walking past one, I said, "Hello."
He replied, "Hello."
"What's your name?" I asked.
"My name is Jimmy," he said in with a perfect American accent, "What's your name?"
"My name is Scott." I said with a smile. "How cute," I thought. We kept walking, and about 2 blocks later, I realized, "HIS NAME'S NOT JIMMY!!! THERE ARE NO JIMMY'S IN CHINA!!!"
Back in the states, I have a Jimmy for a nephew. My Jimmy absolutely doesn't care if he gets Ds and Fs in school. He gets all offended if you tell him that a D isn't good enough, because, "He tried, and as long as he tries, that should be good enough." He'd rather argue for an hour, rather than do 15 minutes of homework. In his world, homework is unimportant, because Plan A is to get sponsored for riding skateboard. Plan B (the fall-back) is to be a rock star.
He can almost land a kick-flip.
China's Jimmy is probably doing calculus by now.
Is it my Jimmy's fault? Viva La Bam isn't telling him he's screwed. It seems obvious, just looking at him, the disconnect from reality that is his daily existence. No one is going to pay him six figures for his ability to listen to an iPod. Isn't it obvious? Why can't he see?
Us grown ups are living in the same reality distortion field. Government squanders money, so starve the beast. When's the last time you heard a politician say, "You get what you pay for." No on has the balls. Here in Oregon, we voted about a decade ago to slash our property taxes. Woo-Hoo. High-fives all around. My Jimmy's in a classes with 36 other Jimmy's. The school year is so short that it's questionably whether universities would even count it as a full educational year. Score one for the tax payers.
Our All American Jimmy can't add fractions in 8th grade!
I think the conclusion Gates has jumped to, well before the rest of us, is the futility of trying to "solve the problem." He's not going to waste one second hollering about the need to fix America's educational system. He's not going to pound his fist in front of the House of Representatives and say that we're failing our kids. You don't have a conversation with people who don't care.
Bill's decided that the so-called leadership in this country is worthless, our kids are screwed, and no ones going to tell them until it's way to late. Bill's idea is, let the rest of the world force a good education into their children, and then entice them to live in McAmericaLand. It's the happiest place on Earth.
The only tweak I'd put on the plan is I'd make it more of a cap and trade system. For every Jimmy that we bring in, we have to send a Jimmy out. McAmericaLand has nothing left to teach our Jimmy, but maybe if he lived a couple of years abroad, maybe if he rubbed elbows with the people who will be handing him his ass in a few years, maybe he'd come back with a vengeance. Maybe he'd give our Distinguished Gentlemen the backbone to fix the problem for the generation that follows. Maybe he'd even be willing to pay for it.
March 17, 2006
Microsoft gives .NET a vote of no confidence?
Richard Grimes has posted a great article detailing the extent to which Windows Vista actually uses the .NET Framework. The conclusion is: not much. At the end of the article, Richard extrapolates that Microsoft has lost all confidence in the .NET framework, and is internally abandoning it for developing their own products.
On this point, I'm convinced that Richard is incorrect. Richard has collected great data, but looking at that data, I reach different conclusions.
First, WinFX is not included on Vista, and therefor, none of the Windows Vista UI is built using WinFX. My guess is that this isn't because Microsoft has lost faith in .NET, as a technology, but because Vista is going to ship in 2006, come hell or high water. I think it's likey that Vista will ship before WinFX. At the very least, Microsoft has architected Vista so that it's not going to slip because of delays in WinFX. People also told Microsoft that having WinFX be a Vista-only thing pretty much made WinFX worthless. WinFX had to run on down-level platforms. As a result, Vista uses .NET very little. However, WinFX will run on XP, and Windows Server, in addition to Vista.
Then there's ye' ole Vista Reset. A massive fubar on Microsoft's part, but it doesn't appear that .NET was the root cause. It does make me question Microsoft's ability to keep pouring in features and complexity, and actually getting products out the door.
Richard also claims that if you look at the products that require the .NET framework, they're all bit players:
- Customer Relationship Management (CRM)
- DirectX 9.0 SDK
- Sharepoint Services
- Content Management Server
Richard infers that Microsoft doesn't trust .NET enough to use it in any products that generate any real revenue.
Um, SQL Server 2005, anyone? It requires the .NET Framework, and portions of it are written in managed code. .NET's integrated into that product about as freak'n deep as it could be.
The real issue, and Microsoft has underemphasized this, is that it's not very easy to build applications that are somewhat .NET. It's great when you're building something new from scratch, but managed and unmanaged code are so different that it's a big effort to mix the two in, say, Office. And applications like Office are just too big to rewrite from scratch. Hence the problem that Microsoft, and much of the industry, face with their millions of lines of "legacy" code.
March 16, 2006
Launch of Dr. Dobbs TV
Quite some time back, I started posting some tutorials on my Web site called "Firehose Chats". I'm happy to announce that Dr. Dobbs has acquired my chats and is launching them as Dr. Dobbs TV. You can check out the first one on the home page. More to come.
Gearing Up for Modeling, Microsoft Style
With Visual Studio Team System, Microsoft has made a big investment in the modeling side of the software development lifecycle. When people think "modeling", UML often springs to mind, but this isn't the direction Microsoft went. If you want to get inside the heads of the people who built the Microsoft modeling story, check out my latest interview with the Microsoft Modeling Team, available now in SD Magazine.